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| News |
| Science Accomplishments |
| First Simulation of Abrupt Climate Change |
| Simulations are shedding light on an enigmatic period of natural global warming in Earth’s relatively recent history—a time of abrupt climate change. The work, led by scientists at the University of Wisconsin and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), is featured in the July 17 issue of the journal Science and provides valuable new data about the causes and effects of global climate change. Most natural climate change has taken place over thousands or even millions of years. But an episode of abrupt climate change occurred over centuries—possibly decades—during Earth’s most recent period of natural global warming, called the Bolling–Allerod warming. Greenland’s temperature then rose by 27 degrees Fahrenheit (15 degrees Celsius) in several centuries, and the sea level rose about 16 feet (5 meters). The cause of this dramatic Bolling–Allerod warming has remained a mystery and source of intense debate. |
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| Z. Liu, U. Wisconsin and B. Otto-Bliesner, NCAR |
| Figure 2.
A research team has simulated abrupt climate changes using DOE supercomputers at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). |
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| “Now we are able to simulate these transient events for the first time,” says Zhengyu Liu, a University of Wisconsin professor of atmospheric and oceanic sciences and environmental studies, whose team simulated the abrupt climate changes using DOE supercomputers at ORNL. “It represents so far the most serious validation test of our model capability for simulating large, abrupt climate changes, and this validation is critical for us to assess the model’s projection of abrupt changes in the future.” Liu, director of the University of Wisconsin’s Center for Climatic Research, and his collaborator Bette Otto-Bliesner, an atmospheric scientist and climate modeler at NCAR, lead an interdisciplinary, multi-institution research group attempting the world’s first continuous simulation of 21,000 years of Earth’s climate history, from the last glacial maximum to the present, in a state-of-the-art climate model. The group will also extend the simulation 200 years into the future to forecast climate. The findings could provide great insight into the fate of ocean circulation in light of continued glacial melting in Greenland and Antarctica. |
This research is funded by the Office of Biological and Environmental Research within DOE’s Office of Science and by the National Science Foundation (NSF) through its paleoclimate program and support of NCAR. Computing resources are provided via the INCITE program.
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Further Information
http://www.nccs.gov/2009/07/16/oak-ridge-supercomputers-provide-first-simulation-of-abrupt-climate-change/
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